Preseason FPI
/This afternoon at lunch I was reading a post on ESPN revealing the Preseason FPI (Football Power Index) for all the FBS teams. I reread it again this evening while enjoying some Valentine champagne and chocolate because I wanted to compare it with the Way-Too-Early Top 25. After all - aren’t both of these lists supposed to reveal the top teams (or the bottom teams in the FPI) for the upcoming season?
It is no surprise that both have Clemson and Alabama as the top two teams, with Georgia following a short distance behind. And most of the top 10 teams are comparable, but slightly diifferent poll positions. The one exception was seeing Ohio State drop to #13 in the FPI (from an unanimous top 6 placement in four preseason polls), while seeing Michigan at #5 in the FPI. I’m not sure that I believe those placements - though I would like to see it in reality next January!
Other observations after looking at the entire list of 130 teams:
Not surprising that the SEC places five teams in the Top 10, but I was shocked to see 10 in the Top 20
According to the FPI, Texas might not be back, as they are considered the 26th strongest team
Other teams that took significant drops in the FPI from Preseason Polls: UCF, Washington State, Northwestern, and Army
Seeing Tennessee in the Top 25 was a surprise, but the addition of UCLA was a real head scratcher
The three worst teams were all from Conference USA
It looks like Randy Edsall won’t survive to coach UConn in 2020 because they are the 127th team on the list
And lastly, Navy might have a tough year compared to their brothers-in-arms, as both Army and Air Force are 40+ spots ahead of the Midshipmen
One thing I do know is like the surprises I see between various Preseason Polls from respected websites (and later magazines) and the FPI -there will be some end of year surprises that nobody saw coming…